土岩滑坡变形成因及地质灾害预测方法研究

由于当前已有方法未能对滑坡变形监测数据进行滤波融合处理，导致预测结果准确性较低。提出一种土岩滑坡变形成因及地质灾害预测方法，对土质滑坡地质情况以及区域概况进行分析，结合前期勘察以及野外地质调查结果，构建滑坡地质概化模型，进一步分析导致土岩发生滑坡变形的主要原因。采用Kalman滤波方法对各个区域的位移监测数据进行滤波融合处理，同时通过EMD信号分解方法以及支持向量机预测方法对滑坡的变形过程进行预测，进而构建地质灾害预测模型，使用模型进行灾害预测。仿真实验结果表明，所提方法可以获取更加精准的地质灾害预测结果。

Research on causes of soil and rock landslide deformation and prediction method of geological disasters

Due to the failure of existing methods to filter and fuse landslide deformation monitoring data，the accuracy of prediction results is low.A method for predicting the deformation causes and geological disasters of soil-rock landslides is proposed.The geological conditions and regional overview of soil-rock landslides are analyzed.Based on the results of previous surveys and field geological surveys，a geological generalization model of landslides is constructed to further analyze the main causes of landslide deformation of soil-rock.The Kalman filtering method is used to filter and fuse the displacement monitoring data of each region，and the EMD signal decomposition method and support vector machine prediction method are used to predict the deformation process of landslide，and then the geological disaster prediction model is built，and the model is used for disaster prediction.The simulation results show that the proposed method can obtain more accurate geological disaster prediction results.