| GM(1,1)模型在装备维修保障成本预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐凤建,车建国,魏立伟,刘光明.GM(1,1)模型在装备维修保障成本预测中的应用[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2011,29(1):14-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐凤建 车建国 魏立伟 刘光明 |
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| 作者单位： | 防空兵指挥学院;天津预备役高炮师第2团; |
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| 摘 要： | 针对新装备维修保障成本数据较少的不足,运用灰色预测理论构建GM(1,1)模型对装备维修保障成本进行预测,并对模型精确度进行验证.结果表明,所建的模型能够准确地反映实际的情况,可以用来对未来儿年将发生的维修保障成本进行预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测理论模型 维修保障成本 预测 |
Application of GM(1,1)Model in the Cost Forecasting for Equipment's Maintenance Support |
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| XU Feng-jian,CHE Jian-guo,WEI Li-Wei,LIU Guang-ming.Application of GM(1,1)Model in the Cost Forecasting for Equipment''s Maintenance Support[J].Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing,2011,29(1):14-17. |
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| Authors: | XU Feng-jian CHE Jian-guo WEI Li-Wei LIU Guang-ming |
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| Affiliation: | XU Feng-jian1,CHE Jian-guo1,WEI Li-Wei2,LIU Guang-ming2(1.Air Defense Command Academy,Zhengzhou 450052,China,2.The Second Antiaircraft ArtilleryRegiment of Tianjin Reserve Division,Tianjin 300300,China) |
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| Abstract: | A GM(1,1) model is developed using the grey prediction theory to forecast the cost for the maintenance and support of a new system when the available maintenance dataare quite few.The accuracy of the proposed model is demonstrated.It's shown that the model can accurately reflect the real situation and is applicable to forecast the maintenance cost of the system in several years later. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model maintenance cost forecast |
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