2000年以来中国高耗能产业的空间格局演化及其成因

优化高耗能产业空间布局对新时期推进经济高质量发展和生态文明建设都具有重要意义。基于2000-2016年的省级面板数据,文章探讨中国高耗能产业的空间布局演化及其成因。通过计算区位基尼系数、产业集中度,发现高耗能产业省区分布较为集中,主要分布在山东、江苏、河南、广东等少数省份。动态格局方面,高耗能产业的空间格局发生重大变化,集疏过程经历“集聚-扩散-集聚”的阶段性变化。区域间主要表现为东北地区向中西部地区转移,东部地区产业份额总体不变,但区域内部格局变化显著,表现为北京、上海和广东向山东和江苏发生大规模转移。基于相关理论,文章构建高耗能产业空间分布影响因素的计量模型。统计分析表明,经济发展水平和历史基础是影响高耗能产业布局的主要因素,但影响强度正在逐步弱化;资源禀赋和经济全球化通过影响企业原材料和中间产品获取途径作用于高耗能产业的空间布局,但前者作用强度正逐渐减弱,而后者的影响则日益突出;环境规制和政府干预正逐渐成为促使高耗能产业空间扩散的重要驱动力。

The Evolution of Spatial Distribution and Its Influencing Factors of High-Energy Intensive Industry in China Since 2000

Optimizing the space layout of high-energy intensive industry is of great significance to promote the construction of ecological civilization in the new era. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016, this paper explores the spatial evolution of China's high-energy intensive industry. By calculating the location Gini coefficient and industrial concentration, it is found that the evolution of the spatial pattern of China's high-energy intensive industry has experienced the staged characteristics of "aggregation-diffusion-agglomeration". The provinces with high-energy intensive industry are relatively concentrated and are mainly distributed in a few provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and Guangdong. In terms of the time trend, the spatial pattern of high-energy intensive industry has undergone major changes, and the inter-regional exchanges have mainly manifested itself in the transition from the northeastern region to the central and western regions. The overall share of the industry in the eastern region remains stable, but the internal structure of the region has undergone significant changes and shows a large shift from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong to Shandong and Jiangsu. Based on related theories, we construct an econometric model of the influencing factors for spatial distribution of high-energy intensive industry. Statistical analysis shows that the economic level and historical basis are the main factors affecting the distribution of high-energy intensive industry, but the impact strength is gradually weakening. Resource endowments and economic globalization affect the spatial layout of high-energy intensive industry by affecting the way that companies obtain raw materials and intermediate products. However, the impact strength of the former is gradually weakening, while the latter's strength is increasingly prominent. Environmental regulation and government intervention are gradually becoming important driving forces for the spatial dispersion of highenergy intensive industry.