双循环新发展格局下农产品市场整合关系异质性研究：新结构经济学视角

在双循环新发展格局的背景下，文章以新结构经济学理论为指导，选取中国苹果优势主产区现货市场和期货市场数据，运用可解决内生性问题的自回归分布滞后模型和误差修正模型，从空间结构和时间结构两个维度检验中国苹果市场整合关系，并从生产要素结构视角揭示市场整合异质性的产生原因。研究表明：(1)从主产区内部结构看，环渤海湾产区山东、辽宁和河北市场之间存在长期分割现象，黄土高原产区陕西、甘肃和山西市场之间也存在长期分割现象；(2)从主产区外部结构看，山东和陕西市场之间处于长期整合状态；(3)从时间结构看，期货市场与山东、陕西现货市场存在长期整合关系，期货市场与其他省份的现货市场不存在长期整合关系。

Heterogeneity of Integration Relationship in Chinese Agricultural Markets in the New Double-cycle Development Pattern: A New Structural Economics Perspective

Facing the new development pattern of dual circulation, this paper takes the New Structure Economics as the guidance, selects the spot market data in Chinese major apple producing areas and futures market data, and uses the ARDL-ECM model that can solve the endogenous problem to test market integration relationships from spatial structure and time structure. The results show that the integration relationships of the apple market in China are heterogeneous. (1)From the internal structure of the main production areas, there is a long-term segmentation phenomenon among the markets of Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei in Bohai Bay region, and the same situation occurs in Loess Plateau region. (2)From the external structure of the main producing areas, there is a long-term integration relationship between Shandong and Shaanxi markets. (3)From the perspective of time structure, there is a long-term integration relationship between futures market and spot market in Shandong and Shanxi, but there is no long-term integration relationship between futures market and spot market in Liaoning, Hebei, Gansu and Shanxi.