系统动力学视角下城市群绿色低碳路径研究

碳达峰和碳中和的提出对城市群发展提出新的要求,城市群高速发展与环境问题间的矛盾日益加剧,绿色低碳发展路径亟待研究.以京津冀城市群为研究对象,在梳理城市群发展影响因素的基础上,分析城市群循环系统构成中要素间的关联关系,并通过量化模型,搭建基于系统动力学的城市群绿色低碳发展系统;重点从经济、能源、环境和城市聚合4个角度构建仿真系统,建立要素间量化函数,设定基本场景,以2010—2019年数据为基础,对系统进行仿真运行.算例结果表明,构建的仿真系统通过了检验,拟合程度较好;通过设计不同场景,验证相关参数变化时对系统运行的影响程度,发现综合场景对未来系统运行效益最佳,兼顾了经济发展与碳减排问题,能够促进城市向群绿色低碳发展.

Research on the Green and Low-carbon Path of Urban Agglomeration on the Perspective of System Dynamics

The proposal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality calls for new requirements for the development of urban agglomerations. The contradiction between the rapid development of urban agglomerations and environmental problems is increasing, and the green and low-carbon development path needs to be studied urgently. The thesis takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research object. Based on combing the factors affecting the development of the urban agglomeration, the relationship between the elements in the urban agglomeration cycle system is analyzed, and a quantitative model is used to build a green urban agglomeration based on system dynamics. Carbon development system; focus on building a simulation system from the four perspectives of economy, energy, environment, and urban aggregation, establish quantified functions among elements, set basic scenarios, and simulate the system based on data of 2010-2019. The results of the calculation examples show that the simulation system constructed has passed the inspection and has a good degree of fit; by designing different scenarios to verify the degree of impact on the system operation when the relevant parameters change, it is found that the comprehensive scenario is the best for the future system operation benefits, taking into account Economic development and carbon emission reduction issues can promote the green and low-carbon development of cities.