基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价

水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题，通过研究水环境系统的内在机理，综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素，借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上，构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法，对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47.056提高到63.210，脆弱性等级由“重度脆弱”演化为“中度脆弱”，并长期维持在“中度脆弱的”等级，2014年出现了向“轻度脆弱”状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知，影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加；而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降；其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。

Evaluation of Water environmental System Vulnerability in Jiangsu Province Based on Weight-Varying Gray Cloud Model

Water environmental system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water resource utilization and eco-environment, by inherent mechanism study of water environmental system, an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established, which comprehensively takes the influences including resources, environment, economy and society into consideration. On that basis, weight-varying gray cloud model is put forward. The model is used to evaluate the water environmental system vulnerability of Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2014. In conclusion, from 2004 to 2014, the vulnerability index of the was increased rapidly, rising from 47.056 to 63.210. In 2004, the stayed at IV grade. After 2004, the water environmental system vulnerability downgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level, and it shows an improvement trend. Then this paper analyzes the impact degree of each subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability, the result shows that, from 2004 to 2014, the influence of impact subsystem and responses subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability is increasing. On the contrary, the influence of pressure subsystem and management subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability presents a downward tendency. The influence of other subsystems on water environmental system vulnerability is maintained at a certain level with minor fluctuation.