太湖流域近20年社会经济发展对水环境影响及发展趋势

太湖流域历来是我国经济比较发达地区之一。分析了流域近20年来社会经济发展状况和水环境变化，探讨了两者之间的关系，并在社会经济预测基础上对水环境未来演变做了定性的研究。结果表明：近20年太湖流域GDP年均增长率为11.6％，城市化率提高31个百分点，工业总产值增长了13倍，作物播种面积和有效灌溉面积逐年减少；与此同时，超标河长的比例在20世纪90年代上升了23个百分点，太湖水质20年来下降了两个级别；经济的发展和居民生活水平的提高，使流域用水总量逐年上升，特别是生活用水量；工业废水排放量随着工业产值增加有下降趋势，而生活污水排放量却大幅上升，农业化肥使用、畜禽和水产养殖对水环境质量的影响程度越来越大。未来太湖流域的经济还将保持10％左右的发展速度，用水量将持续上升，水环境污染在短期内还有加重的趋势。

IMPACTS OF 20-YEAR SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE TREND OF AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE TAIHU BASIN

Taihu Basin was always one of the most developed districts in China.The authors analyzed the changes of socio-economy and aquatic environment over the past 20 years,discussed the impact of socio-economy,and described the trend of aquatic environment on the basis of future socio-economy development.The annual growth rate of GDP reached 11.6%,the rate of urbanization increased 31% and the gross output value of industry increased 13 times.However,the crop area and effectively irrigated area decreased year after year.At the same time,in 1990's the proportion of the river length with the water quality exceeded the guideline value increased 23%,and the quality in Taihu Lake declined by two grades.For the economy development and the raise of living standards,the total water consumption increased,especially the use for living comsumption;industrial waste decreased though its production value added,however the domestic sewerage ascended rapidly.The impact of agricultural fertilizer use and the aquiculture and poultry on aquatic environment was intensified day by day.In the future,the economic growth rate would keep about 10%,and the water requirement would continuously increase,also the aquatic environment would further deteriorate in measurable future.