江苏省水资源短缺风险的相似云评价方法研究

为有效的监测和评估水资源短缺风险的程度,实现水资源可持续开采和利用,提出水资源短缺风险的相似云综合评价模型。针对水资源短缺风险的影响因素同时具有模糊和随机性问题,建立基于熵权和相似云方法的综合评估模型。借鉴现有理论的基础上,综合考虑风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性等5个评价指标,采用熵权法确定各个指标的权重,利用正态云模型定量描述单指标条件下待评价城市水资源的短缺风险等级。给出一种新的计算正态云模型相似度方法——基于组合模糊贴近度的正态云相似度度量方法,通过比较待评价城市与风险等级之间的熵权正态云相似度值的大小,构建基于熵权相似云的水资源短缺风险评价模型。江苏省三大流域的实例表明,该方法简单可行,结果相对客观合理,能够克服现有方法的一些缺点。

RESEARCH FOR EVALUATING WATER SHORTAGE RISK BASED ON SIMILAR CLOUD METHOD IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

In order to monitor and evaluate the risk of water shortage and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources,the comprehensive evaluation model based on similar cloud model and entropy weight theory was presented to solve the fuzzy and random problem in water shortage risk.The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness.It can realize the transformation between the qualitatives when the fuzziness and randomness are integrated together.It has strong robustness for the uncertain question.The method keeps the random and fuzzy in evaluation.Using existing theoretical approaches,a total of five assessment indexes were considered,such as the risk rate,weakness,possibility of recovery,period for reappear and risk level.The entropy weight method was used to compute the evaluation factors' weights,and the normal cloud model was used to describe the grade of water shortage risk.Based on the combined fuzzy similarity measure,a new method to measure the similarity of normal cloud model was proposed.By comparing the value of entropy weight and similar cloud between the three basins and the risk grade,the comprehensive evaluation model based on the entropy weight and similar cloud was constructed.Moreover,the method was compared with the entropy fuzzy comprehensive (EFC) method,the set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy sets (SPA-VFS) method.The application to analysis of three basins (Huaihe River Basin,Yangtze River Basin and Taihu Basin) in Jiangsu Province shows that the proposed model is feasible and the result indicates the water shortage risk level in Huaihe River Basin will be high in 2010,so that measures for risk management must be adopted in the near future.A numerical example shows the new method is simple,feasible and reasonable,and it can overcome some of the shortcomings of the existing methods.