基于LMDI的我国能源消费因素分解研究

经济飞速发展使我国能源消费急剧增长，能源消费与能源供给、环境污染矛盾日益突出。在分析我国能源消费和能源消费强度变化趋势的基础上，运用LMDI法将我国1996--2010年能源消费变化分解为产出效应、结构效应和强度效应，探讨产出提高、结构调整、效率提高对我国能源消费和能源强度的影响。结果显示，生产规模扩大对能源消费起到正向的拉动作用，结构调整对缓解能源消费增长还有较大的上升空间，能源强度对能源消费的抑制效应自“十一五”期间起作用逐步显现。

Factor Decompositions Analysis of Energy Consumption in China Based on LMDI

With the rapid economic development and the accelerated modernization process in China, the growth of energy consumption of China was growing very rapidly, the conflict between energy consumption and energy supply, environmental pollution becaome increasingly prominent. Based on the analysis of the trends of Chinese energy consumption and energy intensity, this paper decomposed the change of energy consumption into production effect,structure effect and intensity effect by LMDI method over 1996 - 2010 and investigated the effect on energy consumption and consumption intensity by the production expansion, structure adjustment, improved efficiency. The results indicated the expansion of production scale was always pulling up the energy consumption, structure adjustment had wide range to slow down the growth rate of the consumption, the restrict effect of energy iniensity was graduaily appear during the ＂Eleventh Five- Year＂ period.