生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化研究——以辽宁省为例

利用生态足迹理论和计算方法、生态承载力分析方法分析了辽宁省1998--2007年十年期间的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力变化过程。结果表明：辽宁省人均生态足迹由1998年的2．9187上升到2007年的4．3578，人均生态承载力由1998年的0．6676下降到2007年的0．6520，生态赤字逐年增加，生态系统处于人类过度开发利用状态之中；万元GDP生态足迹始终处于下降的趋势，表明辽宁省对区域生物生产面积利用效率逐年提高，但与全国平均水平相比还有提高的空间；从供需结构分析，辽宁省土地供给以耕地为主，但是从消费结构来看以化石燃料土地为主。

Dynamic change of ecological footprint and ecological capacity based on time-series model in Liaoning province

This paper analyzes the changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in the Liaoning province during 1998 and 2007 by using the ecological footprint theory and calculation method as well as the ecological capacity analysis method. The results indicate that the ecological footprint per capita in the Liaoning province had increased from 2.9187 to 4.3578 between 1998 and 2007, and ecological capacity per capita dropped from 0.6676 to 0.6520 in the same period. The ecological deficit increased year by year and the ecological system has been in a state of over-exploitation. The ecological footprint per million GDP had kept in a downward trend, indicating that Liaoning province had kept improving utilization efficiency of biologically pro-ductive area in the past years, but there is still a big gap to reach the national average level. From the view of supply-and-demand structure analysis, a condition of supply being based mainly on farmland while demand being based mainly on fossil fuel means the existing big conflict between supply and demand.