基于改进水资源生态足迹模型的中国水资源可持续利用仿真及调控

针对现有水资源生态足迹模型复杂程度高、适用性不强、系统性和动态性不足的问题，在模型中引入灰水足迹量化消污用水，并在水资源生态足迹指标计算中考虑非常规水源，然后结合系统动力学仿真技术，开展中国水资源可持续利用调控研究.结果表明，2000～2017年中国对水资源的开发利用程度整体保持在生态承载力以内，水资源开发仍有潜力，但水资源的供需却存在不平衡的情况.鉴于此，从节流、开源和污染治理角度出发，设置了6种中国水资源可持续利用调控方案.其中，2018～2050年综合协调方案能在满足水资源生态可持续和水资源负载合理的条件下，妥善解决水资源供需问题，是实现中国水资源可持续利用的最佳调控方案.目前中国水资源开发速度滞后，与社会经济发展对水资源消耗的增长速度不匹配，需在原有政策的基础上进一步加强开源、节水和治污力度，从而缓解水资源的生态胁迫压力.

Simulation and Regulation of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in China Based on Improved Water Resources Ecological Footprint Model

The original ecological footprint model of water resources was improved here to explore the rational policy of water resources development and utilization. Aiming to address the problems of high complexity, weak applicability, and insufficient systematicness and dynamics of the existing water resources ecological footprint model, the grey water footprint was introduced into the model to quantify the water for decontamination. In the calculation of the water resources ecological footprint index, the rainwater collection project, seawater desalination, and water resources regeneration, unconventional water sources were considered, and when combined with the system dynamics simulation technology, the SD model of water resources sustainable utilization in China was established. We carried out research on the regulation and control of sustainable utilization of water resources in China. The results showed that the development and utilization of water resources in China remained within the ecological carrying capacity as a whole from 2000 to 2017, and the development of water resources still had potential, but the supply and demand of water resources were unbalanced. Given this, from the perspective of throttling, open-source, and pollution control, six control schemes for sustainable utilization of water resources in China were set up, including the continuation of the current situation, green throttling, pollution control, strict planning for water source development, and comprehensive treatment. Among them, the comprehensive coordination plan for 2018-2050 could properly solve the problem of water resources supply and demand under the conditions of meeting the ecological sustainability of water resources and reasonable water resources load and was the best regulation plan to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in China. At present, the development of water resources in China lags, which does not match the growth rate of social and economic development on water resources consumption. It is necessary to further strengthen the efforts of open-source, water-saving, and pollution control based on the original policies, so as to alleviate the ecological stress of water resources.