京津冀区域生产和消费CO2排放的时空特点分析

区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.

Spatial Temporal Differentiation of Product-based and Consumption-based CO2 Emissions and Balance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: an Economic Input-Output Analysis

Distinguishing product-based and consumption-based CO₂ emissions in the open economic region is the basis for differentiating the emission responsibility, which is attracting increasing attention of decision-makers'attention. The spatial and temporal characteristics of product-based and consumption-based CO₂ emissions, as well as carbon balance, in 1997, 2002 and 2007 of JING-JIN-JI region were analyzed by the Economic Input-Output-Life Cycle Assessment model. The results revealed that both the product-based and consumption-based CO₂ emissions in the region have been increased by about 4% annually. The percentage of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade was 30%-83%, to which the domestic trading added the most. The territorial and consumption-based CO₂ emissions in Hebei province were the predominant emission in JING-JIN-JI region, and the increasing speed and emission intensity were stronger than those of Beijing and Tianjin. JING-JIN-JI region was a net inflow region of CO₂ emissions, and parts of the emission responsibility were transferred. Beijing and Tianjin were the net importers of CO₂ emissions, and Hebei was a net outflow area of CO₂ emissions. The key CO₂ emission departments in the region were concentrated, and the similarity was great. The inter-regional mechanisms could be set up for joint prevention and control work. Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water and smelting and pressing of metals had the highest reliability on CO₂ emissions, and took on the responsibility of other departments. The EIO-LCA model could be used to analyze the product-based and consumption-based CO₂ emissions, which is helpful for the delicate management of regional CO₂ emissions reduction and policies making, and stimulating the reduction cooperation at regional scale.