全国及区域性人均耕地阈值的探讨

论文首先指出并不存在联合国粮农组织提出的人均耕地面积阈值;继而认为人均耕地面积阈值具有鲜明的时间和空间特征,需要有明确的前提条件。为此按1995年的耕地实际生产力(在耕地面积中扣除菜地和经济作物用地面积),以人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,提出就全国平均而言,人均耕地面积不应小于0.092hm₂、0.104hm₂、0.115hm₂(可以看作当前的人均耕地面积阈值)。根据2010、2030、2050年我国的预期耕地面积以及可能达到的生产能力,按人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,就全国平均而言,2010年人均耕地面积不应小于0.059hm₂、0.067hm₂、0.074hm₂(可以看作近期的人均耕地面积阈值);2030年人均耕地面积不应小于0.052hm₂、0.058hm₂、0.064hm₂(可以作为中期的人均耕地面积阈值);2050年人均耕地面积不应小于0.046hm₂、0.052hm₂、0.058hm₂(可以作为远期的人均耕地面积阈值)。

Analysis of the threshold area of national and regional per capita arable land in China

This paper firstly points out that the threshold area of per capita arable land in China identified by FAO does not exist in fact;then advances that the threshold area of per capita arable land,which needs specific premise,has its distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.There-fore,according to the actual productivity of1995in China,the corresponding threshold areas of per capita arable land under different food demanding level in China are obtained:0.092ha for400kg per capita,0.104ha450kg per capita,and0.115ha500kg per capita(the current thresh-old area of per capita arable land in china).And based on the forecasted arable land area and productivity,threshold area of per capita arable land in2010,2030and2050are also calculat-ed:0.059ha,0.067ha,0.074ha in2010(the threshold area of the near future per capita arable land in China);0.052ha,0.058ha,0.064ha in2030(the threshold area of the medium-term per capita arable land in China);0.046ha,0.052ha,0.058ha in2050(the threshold area of long-term per capita arable land in China).