基于系统投入产出和生态网络分析的能源-水耦合关系与协同管理研究——以湖北省为例

能源和水资源之间存在紧密的耦合关系。以往的资源管理政策往往只关注单一资源,忽略了两者的关联性。为促进能源和水资源综合管理,有必要开展能源-水耦合关系和协同管理研究。从社会经济网络视角出发,论文综合运用系统投入产出和生态网络分析方法,构建了湖北省2007和2012年能源-水耦合网络核算框架。结果表明：1）2012年湖北体现能源最终消费量为14 304.93万tce,体现水资源最终消费量为346.66亿m³,相比2007年分别增长52.26%和7.89%,其中,体现在最终使用中能源与水资源流有近50%来自制造业;2）2007年湖北省水资源网络和能源网络的循环率都约为2.71%,与2007年相比,2012年水资源网络循环率显著增长至4.23%~4.40%,而能源网络循环率则变化较小;3）能源网络和水资源网络的系统鲁棒性都偏向于冗余度更高、效率更低的一侧;4）由于能源-水耦合网络的引入,2007—2012年间,在能源和水资源网络中,电力、热力生产和供应部门对于大多数部门的控制都呈现不同程度的增强趋势。研究辨识了能源与水资源协同管理的关键部门和路径,为湖北省能源和水资源可持续利用提供了理论与数据支撑。

Energy-Water Nexus in Hubei Province Based on System Input-Output Analysis and Ecological Network Analysis

Energy and water are highly correlated. In order to break through the limitations of the previous single-resource management policy and improve the effectiveness of related policies, it is urgent to carry out research on energy-water coupling relationship and collaborative management. Based on the system input-output analysis and ecological network analysis, this paper built an energy-water nexus network of Hubei Province in 2007 and 2012. The results are as follows: 1) In 2012, the energy consumption and water use caused by urban final demand were 14 304.93×10⁴ tce and 346.66×10⁸ m³, respectively. Compared with those in 2007, energy consumption and water use induced by urban final demand increased by 52.26% and 7.98%, respectively. About 50% of energy consumption and water use caused by urban final demand were contributed by manufacturing. 2) In 2007, the recycling rates of water networks and energy networks in Hubei Province were all around 2.71%. The recycling rate of water network increased to 4.23%-4.40% in 2012, and the recycling rate of energy network had small variation. 3) The robustness analysis showed that both energy and the water networks are less efficient and more redundant. 4) After taking nexus effect into consideration, the control of production and supply sectors of electric power and heat over most other sectors in the energy and water networks becomes stronger during 2007-2012. The proposed nexus network approach may help bridge the gap between nexus modeling and regional resource management by identifying the regulating pathways for each sector to coordinate with their nexus management.