大渡河上游种植制度变化及其影响因素——基于2006与2011年的跟踪研究

论文以青藏高原东部大渡河上游农牧交错区为例,采用农户问卷调查方法,在2006和2011年进行的农户和地块调查基础上,分析了研究区种植制度“双改单”现象,并运用多元线性回归模型探究影响种植制度“双改单”变化的因素。研究表明：① 在2006—2011年间,研究区玉米的播种面积保持稳定,小麦的播种面积大幅度下降,土豆的播种面积快速上升,经济作物的播种面积缓慢增加;复种指数明显降低,两熟制作物种植面积下降,一熟制作物种植面积增加,“双改单”现象明显。② 非农收入变化、畜牧业收入变化、地块均面积和区位变量是影响种植制度“双改单”的主要原因。研究种植制度变化并揭示其影响因素,有利于为政府制定有的放矢的粮食生产激励政策提供依据。

Influencing Factors of Cropping System Change in Upper Dadu River Watershed,China

In recent years, “Transferring from double cropping to single cropping” has become a great concern in academia, as it has linkages with intensive utilization of cultivated land and food security. By using panel data, the drivers and determinants that change double cropping to single cropping can be explained, and the result will help the policy-makers to formulate better targeted agricultural policy. This paper analyzes the change of cropping system in 2006-2011 based on household survey and land plot survey in an agro-pastoral interlaced region of the upper reaches of Dadu River watershed, and explores its influencing factors by adopting linear regression model. Results show that: 1) From 2006 to 2011, the area of corn planting was stable, the area of wheat planting dropped sharply, the area of potato planting rose fast and that of economic crops planting increased slowly. Moreover, crop arrangement tended to be diversified and the multiple-crop index reduced obviously. 2) Changes of non-agricultural income, change of livestock income, average area of plots and location variables are the main causes for the transfer of cropping system. The increase of non-agricultural income have positive effect on the transfer from double cropping to single cropping, while the increase of livestock income and average area of plots prevent this kind of transfer.