广东电力生产的温室气体排放趋势和演变特征

通过文献调研收集广东电力生产最新的能源消费数据和排放因子,采用“自上而下”方法估算1995—2011年广东电力行业的直接和间接GHG(温室气体)排放量,量化直接排放量的不确定性,绘制GHG排放流向图,并且根据GHG排放特征提出减排建议. 结果表明:①虽然受经济、环境和能源政策的影响,与1995年相比,2011年广东电力生产的GHG总排放量仍增长438%,达3.44×108 t,其中直接排放量达2.78×108 t,不确定性为±11%. ②从发电能源结构角度考虑,燃煤发电是电力生产的最大GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占总排放量的76%；而从用电终端考虑,工业用电是最大的GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占电力生产GHG总排放量的66%. ③1995—2011年,用电终端总体电力GHG排放强度下降了16%,居民用电人均GHG排放量上升了260%,单位综合发电量的GHG排放系数微升了1%. ④发电能源结构和终端产业结构的低碳化以及控制居民用电的GHG排放量等措施可减排2011年广东电力生产GHG总排放量的44%. 

Characteristics and Trends of Electricity-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Guangdong Province, China

A “top-down” method based on the latest energy consumption and emission factors from the literature was employed to estimate direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity generation in Guangdong Province, China, from 1995-2011. The uncertainties of direct electricity-related GHG emissions were quantified, and GHG flows were comprehensively illustrated for the first time. Based on the characteristics and trends of electricity-related GHG emissions, opportunities for reducing GHG emissions were suggested. The results showed that:1) Although electricity-related GHG emissions were significantly influenced by economic conditions and energy policy, electricity-related GHG emissions increased by 438% from 1995-2011. Total GHG emissions from electricity generation were 344 million tons CO_2e in 2011, and direct emissions were 278 million tons with uncertainty of ±11%. 2) Regarding energy structure of electricity generation, coal-fired electric units were the greatest emission source from 1995-2011. In 2011,6% of total emissions were contributed by coal-fired electric units. Industrial sectors were the greatest emission contributors, accounting for 66% of total emissions from electricity end users in 2011. 3) From 1995-2011, overall electricity-related GHG emission intensity of electricity end users decreased by 16%, GHG emissions per capita in terms of residential electricity consumption increased by 260%, and GHG emission coefficient per unit of net electricity generation slightly increased by 1%. 4) A 44% reduction potential for electricity-related GHG emissions can be achieved in response to decarbonizing the energy structure of electricity generation, decarbonizing the end sector structure and mitigation of GHG emissions from residential electricity consumption.