新疆干旱区水资源生态足迹与承载力的动态特征与预测

为实现新疆水资源与社会、经济和生态环境的协调发展，在测算了新疆2000—2015年水资源生态足迹、承载力和水资源负载动态特征的基础上，利用ARIMA模型对2020年新疆水资源生态足迹、承载力及赤字情况进行预测.结果表明:① 2000—2015年，新疆总水资源生态足迹总体略有下降，但波动剧烈；用水结构中存在着其他用水部门侵占生态用水现象；2016—2020年，新疆水资源生态足迹总体呈“W”型波动下降趋势.② 新疆水资源生态承载力不断下降，由2000年的0.13×104 hm2降至2014年的0.07×104 hm2，降幅达46.15%，处于非常严峻的生态赤字状态，赤字率达99%以上；2016—2017年，新疆水资源生态承载力继续波动下降，降幅超过生态足迹.③ 2000—2015年，新疆水资源负载指数大幅上升，水资源负载级别从Ⅳ级变为Ⅱ级，水资源利用程度提高，开发潜力下降；2016—2020年，新疆水资源负载指数从5.54快速升至6.50，负载级别虽仍为Ⅱ级，但未来潜力不断下降，开发条件愈加困难.研究显示，新疆水资源生态赤字程度已远远超过水资源承载能力，采取有效措施实现水资源对经济社会发展的有效支撑和持续利用是当务之急. 

Dynamic Characteristics and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Arid Areas of Xinjiang

In order to realize the coordinated development of water resources together with social, economic and ecological environments in Xinjiang, we calculated and analyzed the dynamic characteristics of carrying capacity, ecological footprint and load index of water resources. Using the ARIMA model, we also predicted ecological footprint, carrying capacity and load situation of water resources in 2020 in Xinjiang. The results showed that:(1) The ecological footprint of the total water resources in Xinjiang during 2005-2015 showed a slightly downward tendency. There was a phenomenon that other departments seized the ecological use of water. The prediction results showed that the ecological footprint of water resources in Xinjiang province will generally show a 'W'-type downward fluctuation tendency from 2016 to 2020. (2) The carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang during 2000-2015 showed a rapid downward tendency, declining from 0.13×104 hm2 to 0.07×104 hm2 (a decrease of 46.15%). Xinjiang was in a state of severe ecological deficit, with the ecological deficit rate above 99%. The prediction results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang had a downward tendency from 2016 to 2017. (3) The load index of water resources in Xinjiang showed a steady upward trend, and the load level of water resources changed from grade IV level to grade Ⅱ. The utilization of water resources was improved, and water resources development potential declined. The prediction results showed that the Xinjiang water resource load index will increase from 5.54 to 6.50 from 2016 to 2020. Although the level may still be grade Ⅱ, the utilization rate of water resources will continue to improve. With the declining potential, the development conditions are getting more and more difficult. The results indicate that the ecological deficit of water resources in Xinjiang has far exceeded the carrying capacity of water resources. It is imperative to take measures to realize the effective support and sustainable utilization of water resources for economic and social development.