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中国21世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析
引用本文:许吟隆.中国21世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(3):323-329.
作者姓名:许吟隆
作者单位:中国农业科学院,农业气象研究所,北京,100081
基金项目:国家科技攻关课题(2004BA611B-02),国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2003CB415101-03)
摘    要:利用HadCM2和ECHAM4气候模式比较分析了温室气体排放综合效果相当于CO2浓度逐年递增1%情景下中国区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:在温室气体渐进递增情景下,至21世纪末期,相对于1961-1990年的气候基准值,全国地面平均气温增幅可达5—6℃。与地面气温的变化相比,降水量的波动幅度较大,但全国范围内降水量变化的总趋势也是增加的。中国区域地面气温和降水量变化的地理分布显示:降水量的增加主要集中在南方区域,HadCM2预测21世纪末期降水增加可达0.9mm/d,ECHAM4预测可达0.6mm/d;ECHAM4模式模拟的气温增幅比HadCM2高,尤其是在冬季及中国北方和青藏高原地区,而HadCM2模式模拟的降水量的增加较大,但两个气候模式模拟的地面气温和降水量变化的总趋势大体一致。

关 键 词:气候模式  温室气体排放情景  全球变暖
文章编号:1000-2022(2005)03-0323-07

Analyses on Scenario Simulations of the 21st Century Climate Change in China
XU Yin-long.Analyses on Scenario Simulations of the 21st Century Climate Change in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2005,28(3):323-329.
Authors:XU Yin-long
Abstract:In this paper,the datasets of HadCM2 and ECHAM4 are employed to analyze the trend of surface air temperature and precipitation changes over China in the 21st century under the transient scenarios of the equivalent CO_2 increase 1 percent per year(IS92a)in concentrations from 1990 onward.It is shown that the surface air temperature increments would reach 56 at the end of the 21stcentury relative to climate baseline(1961-1990).Meanwhile the precipitation would also increase,though exists the great fluctuations compared with the surface air temperature.It is indicated that the precipitation would obviously increase in South China,over 0.9 mm/d and 0.6 mm/d anticipated by HadCM2 and ECHAM4,respectively.It is presented from the comparisons of the performances of HadCM2 and ECHAM4 that ECHAM4 overestimates the surface air temperature relative to HadCM2;while HadCM2 overestimates the precipitation.However,the overall trend of HadCM2 is similar with ECHAM4 anticipations.
Keywords:climate model  greenhouse gas emission scenarios  global warming
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