基于速度分布的纵向碰撞危险REICH模型初步研究

随着空中交通流量的快速增长,迫切需要缩小间隔标准,提高空域容量和减少航班延误。针对纵向间隔,为计算飞机间的纵向碰撞率提供了一种新方法。首先,研究了飞机速度分布情况,建立了纵向碰撞概率模型;然后,以概率论为工具,根据纵向碰撞概率和REICH模型,建立了纵向碰撞危险模型,推导出了计算纵向碰撞率的方法;并利用概率论中的3 s法则,分析了初始距离、纵向碰撞概率、飞行时间以及飞机速度均方差等对纵向碰撞率的影响;最后,通过仿真算例和分析讨论得出130 km的纵向间隔安全可行,可为确定航路飞行过程中飞机间纵向间隔提供参考。

Study on REICH Model in Longitudinal Collision Risk Based on Airspeed Distribution

With the increasing air traffic flow,the separation standard is required to be reduced in order to enhance airspace capacity and decrease flight delays.In view of the longitudinal separation,a new method for computing the longitudinal collision risk is proposed.First through studying airspeed distribution,a probability model of longitudinal collision is established.Secondly a longitudinal collision risk model is setup based on the longitudinal collision probability and REICH model.Meanwhile,the calculation methods are deduced.By using 3s principle of probabilistic theory,it also obtains some conclusions about the factors′ effect on the longitudinal collision risk,such as initial distance,the longitudinal collision probability,flying time and airspeed standard deviation.Finally through simulation and in-depth analysis,it concludes that the longitudinal separation of 130 km is safe and feasible which can be used as the reference of determining the longitudinal separation between two aircraft flying en route.