干旱地区农业自然资源人口承载容量系统动力学研究——以新疆吐鲁番地区为例

以合理开发利用农业自然资源,充分发挥地区资源优势,生态环境良性循环发展为前提条件,兼顾现实性与合理性,并考虑科技进步因素,按不同的资源开发速度,投入水平和消费水平分为三个方案和三种生活水平,建立吐鲁番地区农业自然资源人口承载容量系统动力学模型,并对该区人口承载容量在1990～2050年60年内的动态变化进行了系统动态仿真运算.

A study by system dynamic simulation on the population carrying capacity of the agricultural natural resources of the Turpan in Xinjiang

This research studies the population capacity of agricultural resources in Turpan region,using the system dynamic simulation method in order to determine how these natural resources can be most reasonably utilized. This study aims to accomplish the following objectives: To understand the factors that correlate with the population capacity of Turpan,to identify the predominant factors which influence the population capacity of agricultural natural resources under certain conditions;To simulate a dynamic model of population capacity for Turpan region;And finally,to provide some theoretical references to help determine the social economical policy for Turpan's population.In this paper,the potential capacity of population in Turpan region from 1990 to 2050 was also calculated,based on the velocity of resource exploitation, investment level,consumption level and three tiered living standards.