黄河近80年径流长程相关性诊断分析及趋势预测

为研究黄河径流的长程相关规律,利用非趋势波动分析法对黄河近80年月径流序列进行了分析,初步得出以下结论:黄河近80年月径流存在内在的长程相关性;长程幂律相关的标度指数а≌0.39;尽管大于11.3a尺度区间的а与小于11.3a尺度区间的а有所不同,但可能由于所分析的径流序列长度受到限制,没有足够的理由判断11.3a是个交叉点;通过波动分析进行趋势预测,在未来十几年,黄河径流的变化可能会成下降趋势。

Long-range Correlations Diagnoses and Trend Prediction of Runoff Over Yellow River During the Resent 80 Years

To study the specific law and the scale range of long-range correlation,series of average monthly runoff of Yellow River during the resent 80 years was analyzed with the detrended fluctuation analysis.The preliminary results showed as follows: Firstly,there existed the long-range correlation in the monthly runoff fluctuations.Secondly,the runoff fluctuations could be characterized by along-range power-law correlation with an exponent=0.39.Thirdly,the scale of 11.3 years could be regarded as across point for the limit of the length of the series,though the exponent at large scale of more than 11.3 years was different from that of less than 11.3 years.The tendency of runoff change of Yellow River may decrease in the next decade.