A polygon-based spatial (PBS) model for simulating landscape change

A spatial model of long term habitat succession at a degrading Louisiana wetland was constructed based upon simulating exchanges across irregularly shaped polygons. Polygons represented the natural morphology which is indicative of the natural landscape. The PBS model was partially successful in simulating spatial habitat changes over a 28-year period when more than 1000 ha of wetland loss occurred (r²=.56). General landscape trends did, however, emerge from the model development. Areas of high annual water level fluctuations, and high primary productivity were less likely to change from wetlands to open water and were most likely to recover if altered. We discuss the potential for predictive improvement and for integration with polygon-based geographic information systems, and conclude that a PBS model demonstrates the need for spatially explicit landscape management.