南充市一季稻高温热害的发生规律及其对产量的影响

高温热害是影响南充市水稻生产的主要农业气象灾害之一,研究该市高温热害的发生规律及与水稻产量波动的关系,为稳定该地区水稻产量、保障水稻正常生产提供科学参考。笔者利用南充市7个气象观测站1960—2014年的气象资料,分析高温热害发生频次的时空分布规律。同时,借助小波分析工具,结合南充市高坪区1981—2014年的一季稻产量资料,分析高温热害对南充市水稻产量的影响。结果表明:南充市高温热害主要以轻度为主,中度次之,重度最少,总热害发生频次表现为先减后增的趋势,在20世纪80年代发生频次较低,研究区南部的高温热害多于北部;高温热害与相对气象产量在2000年后存在3~4年的显著反向共振周期。高温热害是影响南充市2000年后水稻产量波动的主要农业气象灾害,本研究结果可为相关部门合理安排生产布局、制定高温热害防御措施提供科学依据。

Heat Damage on Single-cropping Rice in Nanchong: Occurrence Regularity and Its Effects on Yield

Heat damage is one of the major agricultural meteorological disasters affecting rice production in Nanchong. By studying the occurrence regularity of heat damage and its relationship with the fluctation of rice yield, it could provide a reference for stabilizing rice yield and ensuring the normal production of rice in Nanchong. Based on the data during 1960-2014 from 7 meteorological stations in Nanchong, the authors analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of heat damage; meanwhile, we combined with rice yield from 1981 to 2014 in Gaoping and the authors analyzed the influence of heat damage on rice yield with the wavelet analysis. The results showed that: heat damage showed mostly mild degree, followed by moderate degree, and then was severe degree in Nanchong; the occurrence frequency of total heat damage showed a firstly decreased and then increased trend; there was lower occurrence frequency of heat damage in 1980s; there was more heat damage in the south than in the north; there was a significant reverse resonance period of 3-4 a between relative meteorological yield and heat damage after 2000. Heat damage becomes a major agricultural meteorological disaster which influences rice yield fluctuation in Nanchong after 2000. The results of the study could provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate rational production layout and defensive measures for heat damage.