河南省城市化与碳排放相关性的动态计量分析

基于城市化角度,根据河南省1978—2015年时间序列数据,利用协整检验、Granger因果分析以及动态模拟分析,研究省域城市化与碳排放间的动态相关关系。结果表明:河南省城市化水平与碳排放存在高度正向相关,且二者存在长期协整关系,从长期看,城市化水平每增加1%,则碳排放量增加1.52%;其次二者之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系,即城市化水平的提高是引起碳排放增加的原因,但碳排放却不是引起城市化提高的因素;最后,通过动态模拟分析,河南省城市化对碳排放的影响具有正向冲击效应且有一定的滞后性,但随着城市化的发展其影响上升到一定程度后趋于平缓,并起到一定的抑制增长作用。在未来河南省城市化的长期建设中要推动其对节能减排的引擎作用,建设低碳绿色城市。

Correlation Between Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in Henan: A Dynamic Econometric Analysis

From the perspective of urbanization, based on the time series data from 1978 to 2015 in Henan Province, the dynamic relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions was discussed by cointegration test, Granger causality analysis and dynamic simulation analysis. The results showed that there was a high degree of positive correlation between urbanization and carbon emissions in Henan Province, and there was a long-term co-integration relationship between the two groups. In the long term, the carbon footprint increased by 1.52% for every 1% increase of urbanization. Second, there was a single Granger causality between urbanization and carbon emissions in Henan, it meant that the increase of urbanization was the cause of increased carbon emissions, but carbon emissions were not the factors for the increased level of urbanization. Finally, through analysis of dynamic simulation, the urbanization in Henan had a positive impact on carbon emission, and there was a certain lag, and with the development of urbanization, this impact rose to a certain extent then became gentle, and played a certain inhibition role in growth. So, in the future long- term construction of urbanization, its engine role in the energy-saving emission reduction should be promoted, to construct low-carbon cities.