基础设施对县域经济全要素生产率影响的空间计量检验

线性模型下的研究大都肯定基础设施对全要素生产率(TFP)的促进作用。放宽线性模型假设,以1 183个县域为样本构建空间Durbin模型,检验基础设施对县域TFP的空间溢出效应。结果显示:实体性基础设施(城市化建设和通讯)弱化了所在县域TFP,对毗邻县域TFP没有产生显著的溢出作用;社会性基础设施(教育和金融服务)提升了所在县域TFP,但对毗邻县域TFP产生了显著的负向溢出。一方面说明实体性基础设施会加剧城市对县域的空间剥夺,另一方面又说明县域间对金融信贷和人力资源的空间争夺。因此,在将基础设施投资作为反经济周期政策工具时应更为谨慎。

Quantifying the Infrastructure's Spatial Spillovers to Total Factor Productivity of Country Economy

On the condition of linear model, most of researches have affirmed that infrastructure has improved total factor productivity. By relaxing the strict condition, the paper constructs spatial Durbin model to quantify the spatial spillover of infrastructure to TFP based on sample composed of 1183 countries. The result shows that concrete infrastructure （urbanization and communication） has depressed TFP of local country, but has no significant spillover to neighbors. The social infrastructure （education and finance） has improved TFP of local country, but has negative spillover to neighbors. It means that on one hand, concrete infrastructure will intensify the spatial deprival of country economy by city, on the other hand, financial and human resources will be scrambled among countries. So it must be much more careful when using infrastructure invest as the instrument of anti-business cycle.