京津冀产业转型升级测度及其经济效应研究

文章基于2004—2017年京津冀时间序列数据,采用超前系数、Moore值和Lilien指数等指标对京津冀产业结构变化进行测度,在此基础上运用Shift-Share模型从要素生产率中分解出产业结构变化,以衡量产业转型升级的经济效应。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区第一、二产业滞后发展,第三产业超前发展,整体处于产业转型升级过程中。(2)京津冀地区产业转型升级速度排序为北京市>天津市>河北省,三大区域内部差异较大。(3)北京市TS值呈逐年攀升状态,而天津市和河北省的TS值自2014年后才缓慢上升,北京市产业转型升级高级化明显优于天津市和河北省。(4)北京市劳动生产率增长率的提高不同于天津市和河北省,北京市总结构效应是促进劳动生产率增长的主要因素,而天津市和河北省的劳动生产率增长率的推动力是内增长效应。

Measurement and Economic Effect Study of Industrial Transformation and Upgrading in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper is based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s time series data from 2004 to 2017 and uses the advanced coefficient,Moore value and Lilien index to measure the change of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,on the basis of which the shift-share model is used to decompose the change of industrial structure from factor productivity,so as to measure the economic effects of industrial transformation and upgrading.The results show that 1)the primary and secondary industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region lag behind the development of the tertiary industry which advances very much and is in the process of industrial transformation and upgrading on the whole;2)the speed of industrial transformation and upgrading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is ranked as Beijing>Tianjin>Hebei,with great differences among the three regions;3)the TS value of Beijing has been increasing year by year,while the TS value of Tianjin and Hebei Province has been rising slowly since 2014,and Beijing is obviously superior to Tianjin and Hebei in industrial transformation and upgrading;4)the growth rate of labor productivity in Beijing is different from that in Tianjin and Hebei,and the total structure effect of Beijing is the main factor to promote the growth of labor productivity,while the growth of labor productivity in Tianjin and Hebei is driven by the internal growth effect.