基于云服务的考虑预期调配的应急物资储备策略

储备应急物资是应对突发灾害的有效手段之一。为了满足以人为本、维护稳定和统筹协调的物资储备原则,在储备不足情况下,利用云服务模式统一调配物资。根据应急系统内各储备点的人口覆盖比例和物资预期需求量,以物资储备的公平效用和预期调配成本为目标,构建基于云服务的考虑预期调配的应急物资储备模型,并设计改进的非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)对模型求解。应用该模型对我国应急物资储备系统进行优化配置,确定不同偏好下各储备点的物资配置量。对物资储备总量进行了灵敏度分析,结果表明:物资的购置成本和单位重量是储备总量影响总支出和预期调配成本的决定因素;储备总量的增加会降低预期调配成本,且当购置成本的增加量小于预期调配成本的减少量时,总支出会随着储备总量的增加而减少,直到减少的总支出达到最大值时,得到储备总量的最优值。

Emergency Materials Reserve Strategies Considering Expected Redeployment Based on Cloud Services

Emergency materials reserve is one of the effective means to deal with unexpected disasters. In order to satisfy the reserve principle of people-oriented, maintaining stability and overall coordination, this paper uses cloud service mode to redeploy materials uniformly under the shortage of reserves. According to population coverage rate and expected materials demand of each reserve point in the emergency system, an emergency material reserve model considering expected redeployment based on cloud services is built with the goal of the fair utility of material reserve and the expected redeployment cost. Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm with elitist strategy (NSGA-II) is designed to solve the model. Based on the research results of regional division of emergency materials reserve in China, the proposed model is used to optimize the deployment of emergency materials in the divided regions. Through the analysis of the statistical data of natural disasters in China from 2000 to 2011, the probability of disasters occurrence in different regions and the occurrence probability of different disaster degrees during the planning period are estimated. The developed NSGA-II is programmed by using MATLAB 2011b software to obtain the material allocation quantity of each reserve point under different preferences. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is made for the total amount of materials reserves. The results show that the expected redeployment cost is reducing with the increase of the total reserves. When the increase of the purchase cost is less than the reduction of expected redeployment cost, the total expenditure will decrease with the increase of total reserves. The optimal value of total reserves is obtained until the reduction of total expenditure reaches the maximum. The purchase cost and unit weight of materials are the decisive factors of the impact of the total reserves on the total expenditure and the expected redeployment cost. For the unit material with larger weight and smaller purchase cost, the total reserves should be more; on the contrary, the total reserves should be less. Therefore, this research is helpful for emergency command system to realize the unified allocation and sharing of materials, to avoid duplicate investment and to save money.