外汇储备对名义产出与物价的影响:动态特征与经济解释

本文研究通货膨胀与产出对外汇储备冲击的反应。定义外汇储备影响产出的冲销效应与干预效应,提炼出外汇储备——货币供应量——物价和产出的传导机制,构建结构向量自回归模型研究外汇储备影响通货膨胀与产出的动态特征。实证分析的结论表明:名义产出与物价对外汇储备冲击都呈现出先扩张后收缩的动态特征,名义产出与物价对外汇储备冲击的动态反应特征差异源于货币供给对外汇储备冲击的反应方式及名义产出与物价对货币供应的不同反应,提出在长期以人民币国际化应对外汇储备冲击。

Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserves on Nominal Output and Commodity Price:Dynamical Features and Economic Explanations

This paper uses the structure VAR method to examine the dynamical ways that China's foreign exchange reserves influence nominal output and price index.The main findings are as follows.In the initial two quarters,the impact of foreign exchange reserves brings positive effects on nominal output and after that period negative effects arise.With a 1-quarter time lag,the impact of foreign exchange reserves pushes the price index up in a initial period of about four or five quarters and pushes it down again after...