长三角地区博物馆空间格局演变及影响因素研究

为了进一步探索博物馆空间格局演变规律，运用数理统计与ArcGIS空间分析方法，考察了2000—2018年长三角地区博物馆空间格局的演化特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)长三角地区博物馆数量呈直线上升趋势，2012年后增长速度变缓；江苏省博物馆数量居于首位；长三角地区41座城市中，上海市博物馆数量最多。(2)长三角地区博物馆总体为空间正相关，呈集聚态势。以上海市为核心，极化作用不断增强，整体呈“多核串珠状”，省会城市作用突出。从局部尺度来看，各省城市间差异显著，集聚区主要分布在沿海和长三角地区北部城市。(3)面板数据回归模型显示城市旅游发展水平、城市资源禀赋、城市经济水平、人口因素和政府财政等因素共同影响长三角地区博物馆的空间格局演变。

The Spatial Distribution of Museums and the Associated Factors in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Based on mathematical statistics and the ArcGIS spatial analysis method, the evolution of the spatial pa-ttern of museums in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2018 and the associated factors are investigated. The findings are as follows. First, the number of museums in the Yangtze River Delta region shows a linear rising trend and the growth rate slows down after 2012. Jiangsu Province has the largest number of museums among all provinces and Shanghai has the largest number of museums among the 41 cities of the Yangtze Riyer Delta region. Second, the museums in the region as a whole are positively correlated with space, showing a trend of agglomeration. The polarization effect is increasing with Shanghai as the core, and the general pattern of multiple cores and bead strings has emerged, with provincial capitals playing a prominent role. From the local scale, there are significant differences among cities between provinces, and the cluster is mainly distributed in the cities along the coast and in the northern part of the Yangtze River Delta. Third, the panel data regression model shows that the urban economic level, city resources, population factors, government financial resources, the tourism development level and other factors jointly drive the evolution of the overall spatial pattern of museums in the region.