淮河水量水质联合调度风险分析

为了对淮河流域水质水量联合调度方案进行风险分析，模拟了10个调度方案，包括实时调度方案、人机交互方案和优化调度方案，选取淮河流域2个主要污染物指标CODMn和NH3-N，分别计算各方案下2种水质指标超标风险率和超标程度；同时，进一步考虑调度过程中可能产生的防洪风险和供水风险，采用多目标模糊综合决策的方法，分别考虑上述2种水质6个指标，以水质监测断面界首、鲁台子和蚌埠闸为决策断面，计算得到7种情景下各方案的优劣排序。结果表明，实时调度方案在各种情境下风险最小，为最优调度方案，人机交互方案（方案3、方案4和方案5）在各种情景下风险均比较大，为最劣方案。

Risk analysis of j oint operation on water quantity and water quality in Huai River

In order to perform the risk analysis of the joint operation on water quality and quantity in Huai River Basin,ten opera-ted schemes,including real-time scheduling schemes,the human interaction scheduling schemes,and the optimization schemes, were simulated.Two kinds of water quality,CODMn and NH3-N,which are the main contaminants of Huai River Basin,were se-lected to characterize the exceeding risk ratio and risk degree among the proposed ten schemes.The Jieshou,Lutaizi and Bengbu sluides were taken as the dicision-making sections to consider the potential flood risk and water supply risk.Meanwhile,with the consideration of the above two water qualities and the correspingding six indexes,the optimal to worse order of the above ten schemes under seven different scenarios were obtained respectively by means of the multi-obj ective fuzzy comprehensive decision-making method.Results suggested that the real-time scheduling scheme 2 has the least risk under various scenarios,which was the best scheme.The optimal scheduling schemes of human interaction （scheme 3,4,and 5）suffer a relatively high risk,which were the worst ones.