塔里木河流域水量统一调度自校正模型应用

我国多数流域存在水资源供给不足的问题,全流域水资源统一调度是解决这一问题的重要措施.2000年黄河流域调水引入自适应理论,首次实现了全流域自适应水量调度.塔河流域没有像黄河干流五大水库那样的水量调度大型调节杻纽,全流域水量调度工作难度更大.本文根据模型库思想,综合水文预报、社会经济需水预测、生态需水预测、水量分配和河道径流预报等模型,将自校正技术引入到塔河流域的水量调度工作中,依靠滚动的来水预报数据,动态修正水调目标,开发了塔里木河流域水量统一调度自校正模型.在2004到2005年度的水量调度工作中,将模型结果与现行调度方案进行了对比,实践表明该模型具有更高的灵活性,更能反应水资源的变化.

Application of Self-tuning Control Model in Tariom River Basin Water Regulation

In many river basins in china,water supply can't meet the demands.One of the most important issues to solve this problem is integrated water management through the basin.In 2 000,the automaticlly adapted theory was used into the Yellow River water regulation job.Tarim river basin has not large reservoirs which like five large reservoirs in in Yellow river to control water quantity in regulantion.So it is most difficult tomanage the water resource in Tarim river basin.This apper used the think in model base,combined hydrologic forecast model,economic water demand predict model,eco-environment water demand predict modle,water allot model and run-off forecast model.A self-tuning model for Tarim River Basin water regulation was developed.The caculation results of tis model were compared with the current water regulation sheme in 2004-2005.The results showed that this model was more alive and it could fit the changes ofwater resource better.