中国天然气能源安全评价研究

天然气作为影响国家经济安全的重要能源资源，其开发利用备受世界各国重视，天然气能源安全已经成为我国重点关注的战略问题.文章提出了一种全面综合的方法和一个定量模型框架以量化我国天然气能源安全，基于天然气资源可获得能力、技术可利用能力、环境可承载能力以及国民可负担能力四个维度，构建了我国天然气的能源安全评价模型，并根据4-As雷达图，分析2005年－2018年我国天然气安全变化度的总体趋势，以及各安全维度的演变和影响因素.研究表明：1)自2005年以来，我国天然气能源安全度处于先下降后上升的“V”字型走势，2005年－2011年期间，我国天然气能源安全度整体上处于下降趋势，天然气安全度在2005年处于较高位，而在2011年达到最低值，2011年以后天然气能源安全度不断走高，在2017年到达最高值.2)我国天然气能源安全度受到四个维度的共同制约，其中资源可获取能力成为制约我国天然气能源安全的关键因素，而天然气技术可利用能力成为我国天然气能源安全度增加的最主要动力.3)天然气旺盛的需求降低了天然气的可获得能力，加大了对外依存度，构建安全的国家天然气能源体系已迫在眉睫，随着我国天然气对外依存度的不断攀升以及国际政治环境不稳定性加剧，保障天然气进口和争取天然气国际定价权成为影响我国天然气能源安全的重要因素.

Evaluation on natural gas energy security in China

As an important energy resource affecting national economic security， natural gas has been highly valued by all countries in the world. As China’s natural gas dependence has been rising and the international political environment has become more and more unstable， natural gas energy security has become a strategic issue of major concern in China. This paper proposes a comprehensive and integrated approach and a quantitative model framework to quantify China’s natural gas energy security. Based on the four dimensions of natural gas resource availability， technology availability， environmental carrying capacity and national affordability， China’s natural gas is constructed. Based on the 4-As radar chart， the general trend of China’s natural gas security change from 2005 to 2018 are analyzed， as well as the evolution and influencing factors of various security dimensions. The results shows as follows. 1) Since 2005， China’s natural gas energy security has fallen first and then increased in a “V” shape.From 2005 to 2011， China’s natural gas energy security has been in a downward trend as a whole. It was at a high level in 2005， and reached the lowest value in 2011. After 2011， the natural gas energy security continued to rise and reached the highest value in 2017. 2) China’s natural gas energy security is subject to the four-dimensional joint constraints， among which resources obtaining capacity has become a key factor restricting China’s natural gas energy security， and the availability of natural gas technology has become the most important driving force for the increase in China’s natural gas energy security； 3) The strong demand for natural gas has reduced the availability of natural gas and increased its external dependency capacity， it is imminent to build a secure national natural gas system. As China’s natural gas dependence on foreign countries continues to rise and the instability of the international political environment has intensified， securing natural gas imports and securing international pricing rights for natural gas have become important factors affecting China’s natural gas energy security.