九寨沟九寨天堂泥石流沟特征分析与模拟预测

本文通过现场勘查、数值模拟、遥感影像解译查流域内地质灾害数目、物源特征和成因机理等。基于无人机测量数据选取Massflow软件中的Voellmy模型进行数值模拟，模拟泥石流10年一遇物源量、流速和堆积范围，根据模拟参数预测50年和100年一遇泥石流特征。模拟结果表明：10年一遇平均速度6.5 m/s，堆积范围0.103 km2，实际堆积面积0.096 km2。研究结论：流域下伏地层岩石破碎，容易形成松散堆积体，表层松散颗粒极易被雨水带入沟域内形成泥石流；河流改道致使沟谷对岸岸坡坡脚受泥石流侵蚀现象严重，岸坡整体稳定性下降可能性增大，局部有崩滑现象，严重威胁对岸301省道的通行安全。

Characteristics and numerical simulation of debris flow in JiuZhai Paradise, JiuZhaiGou

In this paper, the number, source characteristics and genetic mechanism of geological disasters in the basin are investigated through field investigation, numerical simulation and remote sensing image interpretation. The Voellmy model in Massflow software is selected to simulate the debris flow source quantity, velocity and accumulation range once every 10 years based on the measured data of UAV. The simulation results show that the average velocity is 6.5 m / s, the accumulation range is 0.103 km2, and the actual accumulation area is 0.096 km2. It is concluded that the rocks in the underlying strata of the basin are broken and easy to form loose accumulations, and the loose particles in the surface layer are easily carried into the Gully area by rainwater to form debris flow, and the Slope Foot of the opposite Bank of the Gully Valley is seriously eroded by debris flow due to river diversion, the possibility of the decline of the overall stability of the bank slope is increased, and with partial collapse and slide, which seriously threatens the safety of the 301 provincial road across the bank.