基于系统动力学的高铁客运需求预测

为了确定中国高铁客运需求的发展规模和规律,通过分析与高铁客运需求相关的经济、人口、设施供给及民航竞争的影响因素,建立了高铁客运需求的系统动力学模型.经过对既有历史数据的验证分析,证明系统动力学模型的有效性,且预测精度优于传统方法.根据经济人口及出行要素设定了三种增长情景,预测发现,中国未来不同情境发展下的高铁客运需求将持续上升,高铁客运周转量2024年突破1万亿人公里,高铁出行量2026年突破30亿人次.基于以上结论,提出了中国高铁建设、票价及服务方面的建议.

Study on Passenger Demand Forecast of High-Speed Railway based on the System Dynamics

In order to determine the development scale and law of high-speed rail passenger demand in China, a system dynamics model of high-speed rail passenger demand was established by analyzing the influencing factors of economy, population, facility supply and civil aviation competition related to high-speed rail passenger demand. Through the verification and analysis of the existing historical data, it was proved that the system dynamics model was effective, and the prediction accuracy was better than the traditional method. According to the economic population and travel factors, three growth scenarios are set, and it is predicted that the passenger demand of high-speed rail will continue to rise under different scenarios in the future. The passenger turnover of high-speed rail will exceed 1 trillion person-kilometers in 2024, and the number of high-speed rail trips will exceed 3 billion in 2026. Finally, some suggestions on high-speed railway construction, ticket price and service are put forward.