渔业资源的评估方法和模型研究进展

渔业资源评估模型主要有产量模型(production models)、Delay-difference模型、消耗模型(depletion models)和年龄结构模型(age-structured models)。产量模型在渔业资源评估中应用很广泛,但不能精确反映统计误差;Delay-difference模型增加了生物参数、并考虑生物过程中的时间延迟,它是扩充了的产量模型,但当可获得的数据不足时,不能精确估算模型中的参数,甚至可能产生错误的估算值;此时,消耗模型相对于Delay-difference模型是有效的,该模型研究渔获量如何影响残存鱼的相对丰度;年龄结构模型能更好地显示种群的动态变化,能为配置合理的捕捞强度提供科学的依据,但需要很多数据,尤其要求精确的渔获物年龄数据。我国渔业资源的评估多采用产量模型和年龄结构模型,对于Delay-difference模型和消耗模型的应用甚为少见。

Review of Fish Stock Assessment Models

Fish stock assessment models have four main types is production models,delay-difference models,depletion models,and age-structured models.Production models are used widely,but do not exactly explain errors,for example,the error in catches and efforts.Delay-difference models extend production models by adding biological parameters,and considering the time delays in the biological process.However,where the data are relatively scarce,delay-difference models offer little or no advantage for parameter estimation because of their demands for extra information,and may result in errors.Depletion methods provide a useful means of stock assessment when data are scarce.They examine how measured removals of fish(catch) influence the relative abundance of remaining fish.Age-structured models are also widely used,which can reflect the dynamic changes,but they require more data,especially the exact age data.Fish stock assessment models in China which are used widely are production models and age-structured models,the former are surplus production models in the most.