膨胀土路基沉降的可靠度分析

针对膨胀土路基沉降的不稳定性和随机性等特点，以膨胀土的膨胀率、线收缩系数、初始含水量、工后沉降期始末的孔隙比变化量和固结度变化量、工后沉降期末的含水量等为基本变量，提出了膨胀土路基沉降的可靠度分析方法和可靠度指标的迭代计算步骤，并就具体工程实例进行了膨胀土路基沉降可靠度计算．结果表明按强度和稳定性设计原则设计的路基的工后沉降超过容许沉降的失效概率较大。

Analysis of degree of reliability of settlement of expansive soil roadbed

Based on characteristics of settlement of expansive s oi l roadbed such as instability and randomicity, expansion ratio, string coefficie nt, original water content, variety of void ratio and consolidation degree durin g the design service life, water content at the end of settlement period were us ed as basic parameters. The method for analyzing reliability of settlement of ex pansive soil roadbed and the iterative method for calculating the index of relia bility were proposed. A typical example was used to calculate the reliability of settlement of expansive soil roadbed. The result indicated that the invalidatio n probability of exceeding allowable settlement was a little big when expansive soil roadbed was designed according to intensity and stability principle.