| 基于最优加权的组合预测模型及应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 耿悦敏.基于最优加权的组合预测模型及应用[J].五邑大学学报(自然科学版),2008,22(1):63-67. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 耿悦敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 广东交通职业技术学院,基础部,广东,广州,510650 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对各种单一的传统预测方法中存在的问题，提出了一种基于最优加权的组合预测方法．根据珠江三角洲天河水文站的水位预测要求，运用最优加权法建立了多元线性回归、灰色系统GM（1，1）和BP神经网络的组合模型．实验结果表明，组合预测方法比各单一模型有更高的预测精度．
|
| 关 键 词： | 多元线性回归 灰色系统 BP神经网络 组合预测 最优加权法 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7302（2008）01-0063-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月25日 |
A Combined Forecasting Model Based on Optimal Weighted Method and its Application |
| |
| GENG Yue-min.A Combined Forecasting Model Based on Optimal Weighted Method and its Application[J].Journal of Wuyi University(Natural Science Edition),2008,22(1):63-67. |
| |
| Authors: | GENG Yue-min |
| |
| Affiliation: | GENG Yue-min (Department of Basic Sciences, Guangdong Communications Polytechnic College, Guangzhou 510650, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Aiming at solving the problems in various single traditional forecasting methods, a combined forecasting model based on optimal weighted method was put forward. Aiming at the needs fro water level forecasts at Tianhe Hydrological Station in the Pearl River Delta, a model combing regression, the grey system and the BP network is established by using the optimal weighted method. The results demonstrate that the combined forecasting model based on optimal weighted method is better than a single method. |
| |
| Keywords: | multiple linear regression grey system BP network combined forecasting method optimal weighted method |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
