| 灰色GM（1，1）模型的一种优化组合方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李茂林,魏勇.灰色GM（1，1）模型的一种优化组合方法[J].西华师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007,28(1):40-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李茂林 魏勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 西华师范大学数学与信息学院 四川南充637002(李茂林)，西华师范大学研究生处 四川南充637002(魏勇) |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省教育厅重点科研课题基金资助项目(2006A077) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对GM(1,1)预测模型的不足之处,首先基于X(0)序列的相对误差平方和最小的思路,提出了一种新的优化时间响应函数即确定指数函数exp(-at)系数C的方法;第1步采用优化背景值方法确定a,b后,第2步用本文方法确定系数C,得到了一个优化组合的新GM(1,1)预测模型.经大量的数据模拟发现,此优化组合新模型无论对高增长系数,还是对低增长系数都具有极高的模拟与预测精度.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 背景值 时间响应函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-5072（2007）01-0040-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-25 |
An Optimal Combination Method of the GM(1,1) Model |
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| LI Mao-lin ,WEI Yong.An Optimal Combination Method of the GM(1,1) Model[J].Journal of China West Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2007,28(1):40-44. |
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| Authors: | LI Mao-lin WEI Yong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Math and Information, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China; 2. Dept. of Graduate Students, China West Normal University; Nanchong 637002, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the disadvantage of GM(1,1) forecasting model,this paper firstly utilizes a train of thought that the sum of relative error square function of sequence x(0) is the smallest,puts forward a new optimal time response function,that is a method to define the coefficient of exponential function e-at;Then,after deciding a,b through the method of optimizing background value in document at the first step,the second one uses our new method to decide the coefficient c,yields a new optimal combination GM(1,1) forecasting model.The simulation of a great deal of data finds that the new optimal combination model has extremely.The simulation of a great deal of data finds that the new optimal combination model has extremely high simulating and forecasting precision both to high and low developing coefficient. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model background value time response sequence |
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