动态模拟模型与动态模拟时间路径

在经济政策分析及政策方案评估中,采用动态模拟模型模拟政策所引起的经济现象变化的时间路径,是评价政策的重要“实验”方法。动态模拟时间路径的性状一般并非由动态模拟过程所决定,而是由动态模拟模型所决定。因此,如何选择不同的动态模拟模型,如何解读不同的动态模拟时间路径,便成为越来越受关注的政策模拟“实验”的焦点。

Dynamic Simulation Model and Its Time Path

Dynamic simulation model is a major experiment method for economic policy evaluation.And the consequent time path in such a model is a key indicator in evaluating economic policies and projects.In most cases,however,the property of the time path result from the simulation model is much more decided by the type of a simulation model than its process.Therefore,the focus of policy simulation experiments is increasingly narrowed down to the selection of dynamic simulation models and the interpretation of their resulting time paths.