渤海聚合物驱油藏聚窜预警方法研究

渤海油田多采用多层合采的开发方式，生产井段长，纵向上非均值性强，且储层疏松，在聚合物驱过程中容易发生窜流现象，为了能够掌握窜流通道的发育情况，从聚驱动态特征分析入手，结合数值模拟、理论计算的结果，提出了一种实时判识及预测的聚窜预警方法。首先应用灰色关联分析方法构建相互独立的聚窜评价指标体系，确定各指标的界限及权重，然后引入模糊综合评判方法建立聚窜判识模型，最后通过灰色预测和支持向量机模型相结合来确定聚窜评价指标体系中的各项指标在开发过程中的动态发展趋势，从而对后期聚窜的发生情况进行预警。该方法在渤海J油田进行了验证和应用，具有较高的准确性，预测精度高达86%。

A Study on the Method of Early Warning of Channeling in Polymer Flooding of Bohai Oilfield

The multi-layer recovery method is widely used in the Bohai Oilfield. The production wellbore is long, the heterogeneity in the vertical direction is strong, and the formation is loose. The channeling phenomenon occurs during the process of polymer flooding. In order to understand the development of channeling, a new early warning method for real-time identification and forecasting of polymer channeling is proposed. The proposed method is based on the dynamic characteristics of polymer flooding. and the results obtained are combined with those obtained from numerical simulations and theoretical calculations. First, the gray relational analysis method is used to construct an independent evaluation index system of polymer flooding channeling, and the boundaries and weights of each index are determined. Next, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish an evaluation model of polymer channeling. Finally, through the combination of the gray prediction and support vector machine models, the dynamic development trend in the recovery process of each index in the polymer channeling evaluation index system is determined, which consequently provides an early warning of the occurrence of later channeling. The method is validated in the Bohai J oil field, and the prediction accuracy is 86%.