考虑人群流动数据的COVID-19传播模型

新冠疫情随着人群的流动和互相接触在各地区快速传播和扩散。通过提出一种考虑地区间人群流动和地区内人群流动状态的疫情传播模型（简称D-SEIR模型），综合考虑人群的流动情况、易感人群和潜伏人群的数量变化情况，从而预测确诊人群的变化。经过深圳市和山东省的实证数据实验结果表明，D-SEIR模型能够准确拟合COVID-19传播过程中的易感人群和确诊人群的演化趋势。疫情未稳定前，模型对深圳市易感人群和确诊人群变化趋势的拟合优度\begin{document}${{r}^2}$\end{document}可达0.9661，0.8474，山东省的拟合优度\begin{document}${{r}^2}$\end{document}可达0.8576，0.8795。疫情稳定后，模型对深圳市易感人群和确诊人群变化趋势的拟合优度\begin{document}${{r}^2}$\end{document}可达0.9720，0.8180，山东省的拟合优度\begin{document}${{r}^2}$\end{document}可达0.8615，0.9122。模型有助于发现COVID-19在人群流动下的传播规律和特性，为复工复产背景下不同城市和地区的风险预警提供决策依据。

COVID-19 propagation model considering crowd flow data

The new crown epidemic spreads and spreads rapidly in various regions along with the movement of people and mutual contact. An epidemic spread model (D-SEIR model for short) that considers the population flow among regions and within regions was proposed. Through comprehensive consideration of the flow of people, and the changes in the number of susceptible and latent people, the changes in the confirmed population can be predicted. The experimental results of empirical data in Shenzhen and Shandong show that the proposed D-SEIR model can accurately fit the evolutionary trends of susceptible and diagnosed populations during the transmission of COVID-19. Prior to the change in the epidemic situation, the goodness-of-fit ${{{r}}^2}$ of the change trend of the susceptible and the confirmed population in Shenzhen reaches 0.9661 and 0.8474, The fitness ${{{r}}^2}$ of Shandong province reaches 0.8576 and 0.8795. With the stabilization of the epidemic situation, the goodness-of-fit $ {r}^{2} $ of Shenzhen reaches 0.9720 and 0.8180. The fitness ${{{r}}^2}$ of Shandong province reaches 0.8615 and 0.9122. The model of this paper is helpful to understand the propagation rules and characteristics of COVID-19 under the flow of people, and provides decision-making basis for early risk warning of different cities and regions under the background of resumption of working and production.