基于CAS理论的南水北调东线水资源优化配置模型

水资源工程规模的不断扩大,使水资源优化配置问题变得越来越复杂.为此,应用复杂适应系统(complex adaptive system,简称CAS)理论研究水资源优化配置问题,并建立了南水北调东线水资源优化配置仿真模型.仿真结果表明:除个别省份外,其他各省和系统的社会、经济和环境的发展协调度都随着调水量的增加而增加;个别省份社会、经济和环境的发展协调度与调水量的非完全正比例关系,是子系统在调水量发生变化时所表现出的适应性行为.

CAS-based water resources optimal allocation model for east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

With the development of water resources,the problem of water resources allocation becomes more and more complex.In consideration of the fact,the theory of complex adaptive system(CAS) was applied to optimal allocation of water resources,and a simulation model for optimal allocation of water resources was developed for the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.The simulation result shows that the coordination degree of society-economy-environment development of the east route system and most provinces increases with the volume of water diversion,and that the non-complete-direct-proportion relationship between the society-economy-environment coordination degree and the volume of water diversion of other one or two provinces results from the adaptability of the subsystem when the volume of water diversion is changed.