格陵兰海冰盖与混合层深度及海表温度之间的关系分析

研究了在北极格陵兰海（20°W-10°E，65°N-85°N），2003-2012年冰盖（ICE）、混合层深度（MLD）和海表温度（SST）的分布及之间的耦合关系．研究发现，ICE和SST在区域内存在着很强的负相关关系，相关系数达0．9以上，尤其是在750N-800N区域，峰值的时间间隔调整后．相关性更加显著．通过Eviews滞后回归分析发现，SST在70°N-750N和75°N-80°N分别滞后ICE7个月和4个月．而且ICE和SST之间存在着协整。说明这两者长期存在均衡关系．ICE和MLD在区域内为负相关关系．尤其是75°N-80°N区域，相关系数达0．82以上．回归分析发现，MLD在70°N-75°N和75°N-80°N分剐滞后ICE1个月和4个月．而且两者之间也有长期的均衡关系．总体来看：随着温度的升高，冰盖在8—9月达到低谷；海表温度夏天高、冬天低；混合层深度冬季深、夏季浅．冰盖的大量融化和海表温度、混合层深度有着很大的关系．

Correlation Analysis Between Ice Cover,Mixed Layer Depth and Sea Surface Temperature in Greenland Sea

This paper focuses on the research in the Greenland Sea of the Arctic （20°W-10°E, 65°N-85°N） from 2003- 2012. The inter-annual distribution and coupling relationship on the ice cover（ICE）, mixed layer depth （MLD） and sea surface temperature （SST） were studied. The study found that the ICE and SST had strong negative relationship in the area and the correlation coefficients were above 0.9, especially in the 70°N-75°N and 75°N-80°N. The peak time was more significant after the adjustment. Through the Eviews lag regression analysis, it is found that SST lags behind ICE for 7 months and 4 months respectively for the two focused sub-regions. The ICE and SST had cointegration, which means there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between them. The ICE and MLD has positive correlation and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.82 or above in the 70°N-75°N and 75°N-80°N. Through the Eviews lag regression analysis, it is found that MLD lags ICE for 1 months and 4 months respectively for the two sub-regions, and they also have a long-term equilibrium relationship. Overall, with the increase of temperature, ICE is less in the summer. The SST is high in summer and low in winter. Moreover, MLD is deep in winter and shallow in the summer. The ice melting has a great relationship with SST and MLD.