System simulation and reliability assessment of Chinese carbon sequestration market

This study builds a simulation of Chinese carbon sequestration market (CSM) based on the Swarm platform and complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. The simulation results represent that the total assets and profits of the carbon sequestration project (CSP) buyer and seller are steadily on the increase in the carbon trading market. The market regulatory efficiency is determined by the market investment and the improvement of regulation policy. Furthermore, the real sample simulation of Sichuan Daduhe Forest CSP demonstrates that the profit of CSP traded in the CSM is higher than the profit from the transactions of outside exchange. It implies that establishing CSM is an effective way to improve the CSP business for investors and a positive action to response to global warming as well. Finally, this study applies an Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (AHPFCE) approach to evaluate the reliability of CSM simulation. It concludes that the CSM simulation is “more creditable”, which indicates that the CSM simulation results can be used as a proxy to observe the market uncertainties.