考虑动态重构的装备体系可用性及弹性分析

要素协同作战框架下武器装备体系具有可动态重构的系统特性, 既增加了体系的复杂性和交互性, 又使其具有了更为明显的弹性特征。本文首先提出了装备体系弹性多层级评价方法, 确定了组成体系的关键装备要素。其次, 以典型的关键装备要素——武器系统为对象, 提出了基于动态双阈值多状态权重k-out-of-n系统模型的装备体系的性能可用性及弹性分析评价方法。最后, 以编队协同防空作战体系为对象进行案例应用研究, 得到了性能阈值恒定、随时间变化和动态变化这3种情况下的火力网可用度和弹性随时间变化的规律, 并验证了所提模型与评价方法的有效性与实用性。

Performance availability and resilience analysis of weapon system of systems considering dynamic reconfiguration

The weapon systems of systems under the framework of the element cooperative operation has the characteristic of dynamic reconfiguration, which not only increases the complexity and interactivity of the systems of systems but also forms its more marked resilience characteristic. Firstly, a multi-level assessment method for systems of systems resilienceis proposed and the key weapon elements of the systems of systems is determined. Secondly, the assessment and analysis method for the performance availability and resilience model is given based on the double-threshold multi-state weighted k-out-of-n system model by taking the typical key equipment element-weapon system as the research object. Finally, the time-varying availability and resilience of the fire network with constant performance thresholds, time-varying, and dynamic changes in a typical formation cooperative air defense systems of systems as the case study is obtained, which demonstrates the feasibility and availability of the proposed model and assessment method.