| 突发事件快速评估模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵洪举,彭怡,李健,朱征.突发事件快速评估模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(3):545-555. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵洪举 彭怡 李健 朱征 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 电子科技大学 经济与管理学院, 成都 610054;
2. 北京化工大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100029;
3. 中国石油物资公司, 北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金(71325001);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173028, 71373216) |
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| 摘 要： | 突发事件发生初期,进行突发事件的快速综合评估,有利于及时、准确地把握事件的态势,以满足应急决策的时效性要求.为解决突发事件数据量较大,数据更新较快时,过于复杂的运算过程和计算软件缺乏以及已有软件兼容性低而难以满足应急决策的时效性要求的问题,本文简化了Simos过程和PROMETHEEⅡ方法,构建了突发事件快速评估模型,即SSPPM(Simple Simos'Procedure and PROMETHEEⅡModel).为了验证新模型的有效性,本文选取了两个数据进行实验.实验结果表明,在对评估速度的要求大于对精度的要求的突发事件控制阶段,新模型能快速综合多位应急决策者的意见,快速获取权重,简化评估过程,提高突发事件综合评估效率.
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| 关 键 词： | 突发事件 SSPPM Simos过程 PROMETHEE II 快速评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-08-26 |
Emergency incidents rapid comprehensive assessment model |
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| ZHAO Hong-ju,PENG Yi,LI Jian,ZHU Zheng.Emergency incidents rapid comprehensive assessment model[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2015,35(3):545-555. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hong-ju PENG Yi LI Jian ZHU Zheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;
3. China Petroleum Materials Corporation, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | In the early stage of emergency incidents, rapidly and comprehensively assessing the emergency incident is conducive to timely and accurately grasp the trend of the events and meet the timeliness requirements of emergency response. To solve the complicated calculation process and the lack of calculation software as well as the low compatibility of the existing software, a rapid comprehensive assessment model was established based on two revised algorithms, the Simple Simos Process and PROMETHEE II. Two experimental emergency datasets are used to verify the SSPPM. The experimental results show that the SSPPM (Simple Simos' Procedure and PROMETHEE II Model) can quickly acquire weights of criteria and get the result of assessment timely. |
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| Keywords: | emergency incidents SSPPM Simos'' procedure ROMETHEE II rapid comprehensive assessment model |
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