面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法研究

突发事件应急决策问题具有典型的复杂系统特性,本文深入分析了传统决策问题和应急决策问题的差异,考虑应急决策问题的特殊约束条件,提出了面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法——"基于跨域仿真的应急决策方法",该方法由三条基本准则、跨域仿真模型、基于跨域仿真的决策支持模型三部分组成.三条基本准则包括动态锚定、有效策略、底线原则,分别针对应急决策面临的决策目标动态不确定、方案评估缺乏评价依据、决策调整难以实施三大难题给出了解决途径;跨域仿真采用"数据-模型"融合的方式解决突发事件仿真的"仿不准"难题;基于跨域仿真的决策模型实现了复杂突发事件的有效决策.本文提出的基于跨域仿真的应急决策方法具有一定的方法论意义,可推广适用于多种具有复杂系统特征的广义决策问题.

Study on decision-making method for complex crisis

Based on comparison between classical decision-making issues and crisis decision-making issues, specified constrain conditions of crisis decision-making are analyzed, which behaves more like a complex system. In this paper, a decision-making method for complex crisis is developed, which consists of three principles, a cross-simulation model, and a decision-making model based on cross-simulation. The three principles include the dynamic anchoring principle, the effective non-optimal principle, and the bottom line principle. The three principles aim at three major difficulties of crisis decision-making, which are no-fixed objective, lack of evaluation method, and hard to adjust. The cross-simulation model contributes to accuracy and reliability of simulation with integration of data and models. The decision-making model based on cross-simulation provides effective decision support for complex crisis. The method developed in this paper may be applied to more complex issues not limited to crisis.