天津市气候变化及其与城市化发展的关系

根据天津地区气象站近50年的气象数据,采用回归分析、滑动平均、Morlet小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验法研究天津地区气候要素的变化规律;采用趋势拟合与相关分析,研究近30年各气候要素与地区生产总值、城镇人口百分比、城乡居民收入差、全社会固定资产投资额等各项城市化进程指标的关系.结果表明：1）近50年来,天津地区年均气温增幅为0.35℃/（10 a）,呈极显著的上升趋势,年降水量减少趋势不明显,但其时间序列周期振动较明显,日照时数呈极显著的下降趋势;2）20世纪80—90年代初期为天津地区气温、日照时数和城郊温差、日照时数差的跃变年份;3）各项城市化进程指标分别与天津地区气温、日照时数有着极显著的正相关、负相关性,表明它们与天津城市热岛、暗岛的发展关系密切.

Climate change characteristics of Tianjin and its relationship to urbanization

Based on meteorological data of recent 50 years at meteorological stations in Tianjin region, and emplo- ying methods of regression analysis, moving average, the Morlet wavelet transform and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper studied into annual changes of climate elements in Tianjin. The indicators for urban development, including GDP,the percentage of urban population,the income differences between urban and rural residents, and total fixed assets investment, were also considered for trend fitting and correlation analysis to the relation for nearly 30 years of each climate element. The results show that Tianjin has an average annual temperature increase of 0. 35C/（ 10 a） in past 50 years with a significant upward trend,while the decreasing trend for annual precipitation is not obvious, yet the time series cycle vibration is evident. Sunshine hours showed a very significant downward trend. 1980s to early 1990s is the jumping point of air temperature,sunshine hours, temperature and sunshine hours differences be- tween urban and suburban area for Tianjin region. There is a significant correlation between all the indicators for ur- ban development and the temperature and sunshine hours, which means that all the indicators are closely related to the development of heat island and dark island effect in Tianjin.