| 军用飞机研制风险的模糊综合评价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李寿安,宋笔锋,王庆锋.军用飞机研制风险的模糊综合评价方法[J].电光与控制,2009,16(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李寿安 宋笔锋 王庆锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北工业大学航空学院,西安,710072
2. 中国人民解放军94106部队,西安,710614 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对风险评价中信息的模糊性和不确定性,提出了军用飞机研制风险的模糊综合评价方法.首先,对风险评价的一般方法进行分析;然后,确定了军用飞机研制的风险源因素和风险后果因素.采用模糊集表示风险源因素对研制失败的影响和风险后果因素的大小,并对各个因素进行模糊评价;最后,根据各个因素的模糊评价矩阵及其权重,采用模糊综合评价方法获得研制风险的失败概率和失败后果,由失败概率和失败后果可得到研制风险的大小.算例表明,模糊综合评价方法可将风险评价中的模糊和不确定信息定量化处理,能够有效地对军用飞机的研制风险进行评价.
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| 关 键 词： | 研制风险 模糊 评价 失败概率 失败后果 军用飞机 |
A Fuzzy-Based Assessment Method for Military Aircraft Development Risk |
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| LI Shouana,SONG Bifeng,WANG Qingfeng.A Fuzzy-Based Assessment Method for Military Aircraft Development Risk[J].Electronics Optics & Control,2009,16(2). |
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| Authors: | LI Shouana SONG Bifeng WANG Qingfeng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Aeronautics;Northwestern Polytechnical University;Xi'an 710072;China;2.No.94106 Unit of PLA;Xi'an 710614;China |
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| Abstract: | Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of the information in risk assessment,a fuzzy-based assessment method is proposed to assess the development risk of the military aircraft.Firstly,the general method for risk assessment is analyzed.Secondly,the source factors and the consequence factors for the military aircraft development risk are determined and described by using fuzzy sets,and each factor is evaluated by the fuzzy theory.In the end,according to the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weighting coeffi... |
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| Keywords: | development risk fuzziness assessment failure probability failure consequence military aircraft |
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