基于贝叶斯网络的土石坝可靠性分析

提出采用贝叶斯网络方法来分析大坝的可靠性问题.首先简要地介绍了贝叶斯网络方法的基本原理和建模方法,将贝叶斯网络方法和故障树方法进行了比较,并给出了故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的基本步骤.定义了贝叶斯网络中节点的重要度因子,并给出了相应的计算公式.最后以土石坝为例,根据土石坝的失效机理建立了土石坝可靠性分析的贝叶斯网络模型,并对溃坝原因进行了重要度分析.结果表明,贝叶斯网络能够有效地进行大坝可靠性分析,它能够更直观地表示大坝失事的因果关系,且贝叶斯网络能够方便地解决共因失效问题.故障树可以方便地转化为相应的贝叶斯网络模型.贝叶斯网络节点的重要度分析结果为制定有效的大坝失事概率控制措施提供了理论依据.

Reliability evaluation of earth-rock dams using Bayesian network

A Bayesian network approach applied to reliability evaluation of dams is proposed.The basic principle of the Bayesian network is briefly introduced and compared with the fault tree analysis.A procedure to transform a fault tree into a Bayesian network is presented.The importance factor of nodes in Bayesian network is defined and the formula for calculating the importance factor is presented.Then the Bayesian network is applied to evaluate the reliability of earth-rock dams.The results indicate that the reliability of earth-rock dams can be evaluated using the Bayesian network in a more rational way. The relationship between the causes and consequences for dam safety evaluation can be expressed in an intuitive format using the Bayesian network.In addition, the common cause failure associated with reliability evaluation of earth-rock dams can be handled using the Bayesian network easily.Any fault trees can be directly mapped into the corresponding Bayesian networks.The results of importance analysis can aid in the identification of which factors are candidates for mitigation actions.